Jeter’s 2012 assault up the MLB All Time Hit List

In 2012 Derek Jeter is going to continue his assault up the ladder of the MLB All Time hits leader board.   Currently Jeter sits in the 20th spot with 3,088 hits.  When the season begins he will need just 23 hits to move up one more spot and pass former Yankee Dave Winfield.

If you take the last 3 seasons and average out Jeter’s hits you would come up with 184 hits.  Assuming Jeter is injury free this year and continues with his new approach that could be attainable.  Adding 184 to his current total of 3,088 you get 3,272.  If Jeter finishes the year with that he would be passing

#18 Tony Gwynn    3,141 (20)

#17 Robin Yount    3,142 (20)

#16 Paul Waner      3,152  (20)

# 15 George Brett   3,154  (21)

# 14 Cal Ripken      3,184  (21)

# 13 Nap Lajoie      3,242  (21)

# 12 Eddie Murray 3,255  (21)

Jeter could be in the twelfth spot by the end of the season sandwiched in between Eddie Murray and Willie Mays who has 3,283 hits.   If you are a Jeter lover or hater you have to agree that is pretty impressive.  Even more remarkable is that Jeter is this high up with only 17 seasons in the big leagues the numbers in parenthesis (above) after the hits shows how many season it took those other hall of famers to reach their total.   Jeter is signed to the 2013 season and has a player option for 2014.  If you would give Jeter 165 hits (lower for age) for  2013 and 2014 and total that up with this years projections you come up with 3,602 hits.  That would leave Jeter at 5th all time in hits just behind Stan Musial Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb, and the all time hits leader Pete Rose.

Stats could be a fun thing and watching a player pass all these greats is exciting especially when he plays for your favorite team the New York Yankees.

So where do you all see Jeter finishing his career at?  Do you think he could make it into the top 5?

About Matthew S.

Avid Yankee fan since birth. I have been going to Yankee games with my father since i was young. I have many memories at YSII including many playoffs and world series games. I hope that you enjoy our blog. Comment often.

Posted on January 6, 2012, in Milestones & Records and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 30 Comments.

  1. I think Jeter winds up between 3400 and 3450. Because I don’t think he will exercise his 2014 option, or at least I hope he doesn’t.

    Nothing against Jeter but it’s time for new, fresh and younger blood there.

    • BTW:
      #5) Tris Speaker………..3,514
      #6) Carl Yastrzemski…..3,419
      #7) Honus Wagner……..3,415
      #8) Paul Molitor………….3,319

    • You might be right but too early to tell. 2014 is 2 yrs away.

      I’d like to see Jeter announce before 2013 that it will be his last year so there is no controversy and the fans and team can honor him throughout the yr and he can ride off into the Hall of Fame and life after basbeall.

      However, I don’t think Jeter is even thinking about retirement and as long as he’s playing the way he did in 2nd half, he won’t retire. If he looks like he did in 1st half then the Yanks need to broach the idea of retirement after 2013.

  2. He will have to be pushed out the door just as Posada was. He is sticking around for more hits.
    Jeter is a spical player but, he is not one of the gods of baseball, in June, he will be 38. There is no way he should be the every day SS for the Yankees, the only thing he MAY have going for himself is his bat but, that is starting a long slide down hill also.
    I know, I am a Jeter hater. KMA!

    • oldyankee, I by no means would call you a Jeter hater. I think you are a realist and that’s good in my book.

    • oldyankee – If you will allow me. I’v seen most if not all of the Yankee greats from the mid to late 1950’s on. As I mentioned previously from Yogi, Whitey and Mantle on. And even though I never had and opportunity to see them my father did and in my opinion there are only 2 players that in my opinion were bigger than the team. Other than “The Babe” and “The Iron Horse” no player is bigger then life and the team. Sometimes decisions are painful when it comes to when a players time is up. And as painful as those decisions are they nevertheless need to be made. If you know what I mean.

      Others I’m sure will disagree but that’s just the way I feel.

      • I have been watching the Yankees from 1947-8(?). From the days of Joe D on. I should say when I was in the states, from 1961 to 1995 I was bussy elsewhere and again 2002 to 2004.
        I have tried to tell fans that I was trying to point out that SS don’t last as long as Jeter has but, they think I am a Jeter hater.
        Hell, the Yankees shipped “The Babe” out of town when he got too old, what makes anyone think Jeter or anyone else is better then he was?
        I can’t see the Yankees having A-Rod around when he is over 40. He will walk before his contract is up.

  3. Good article and I often think about the milestones Jeter could pass. However, I think there’s something wrong with the math in the article. First, we add 184 to his current total of 3088 to get 3272. So far, so good. Then we assume 165 per year in 2012, 13 and 14 to get to 3767. Problem is, we already gave him 184 for 2012. If we give him an additional 165, we’ll be projecting Jeter for 349 hits this year. Yeah! Anyway, we should be adding 3088 + 184 + 165 + 165 = 3602. Not too shabby. Am I missing something?

  4. Thanks, Matt. So many uncertainties factor into any projection of Jeter’s hits. The first is continued good health. Jeter has been strong on staying healthy throughout his career, so it’s not too big a leap to assume he’ll stay healthy (although he’s never been 37 before, never mind 38 and 39). Then the questions are: does he remain a good enough shortstop to stay in the starting lineup through the entirety of his contract? That’s a tough one, especially since many think he already isn’t a good enough defensive shortstop to stay in the lineup. The important thing however, is that the Yankees think he is, and so unless he regresses significantly further, we can probably assume he’s got his starting role assured. Then of course, can he keep hitting? The second half of this season was certainly a promising sign. Finally, does he stay good enough offensively to stay in the #1 or #2 spots in the batting order. If he is to accumulate hits, he’s got to stay at the top. #9 hitters, even if they hit .300, seldom top 150 hits.

    The bottom line is, IF Jeter stays healthy and offensively as productive as now, 3600 hits is not unreasonable. If we project a little bit more of a decline than is built into the article, then somewhere between 3500 and 3600. 3500 makes him #6 on the all-time list — behind only Rose, Cobb, Aaron, Musial and Speaker. I believe it is not unreasonable to assume he can make it to 3500.

    If he stays healthy, there’s no way he retires one day before his contract runs out. First, he’s extremely proud and not one to admit any weakness — which might be his biggest weakness (from the club’s perspective) going forward. Second, no matter what he says, he’s got to be looking at those accumulating hits totals as well. Finally, he’s stated that he wants to buy a MLB team after he retires. So, while we may all look at Derek as fabulously wealthy, in the club of MLB team owners, Jete would be the clear poor man in the room. Every extra year of 10+ million helps. That said, after 2014, it’s unlikely anyone gives him another contract that would be financially lucrative enough to keep him around, if money is his motivator (although we never know — there’s always Hank to extend Jete another 10 years at $20 mill a year!).

    I’m curious, this article and others have talked about Jeter having a player option in 2014. I was under the impression it was a vesting option that kicked in if Jeter achieved certain goals in 2012 and 2013. Am I (to use the immortal words of Roger Clemens) mis-remembering?

    • It is purely a player option. $8MM if he exercises it. $3MM buyout if he doesn’t.

    • The final year is a player option. And unless Jeter is horrible by that time, if he wants to come backi, t’s probably in the Yankees favor if he does choose to excercise the option.

      Although the salary in 2014 would be $8M, Jeter gets a $3M buyout if he declines it. So it would only cost the Yankees an extra $5M if he chooses to come back. If he’s still good enough to start that would be a good deal. However, if he IS still good enough to start he could just decline the option, pocket the $3M and sign a new 1-yr deal for more than $5M.

      Best case scenario is he announces during 2013 that it will be his last season. That way the Yanks can gain from the added attention and attendance that would accompany a Jeter farewell tour during the season.

      • Fish…my way of thinking on this is that for 3 million the team can buy him out. In order for him to get at least 3 million in 2014 he needs to exercise his player option.

        The buyout is the question I have been trying to get an answer on but haven’t yet.

        • That would be best case scenario for the team.

          Although I think if that were the case it would be termed as a Mutual Option.

          If Jeter wanted to come back and the team wanted him back he’s get $8m
          If Jeter wanted to come back and team said no he’d get $3M
          If both parties said no, he’d get nothing.

          But they word it as a player option so I interpret it as Jeter gets $3M if he chooses not to come back or $8M if he chooses to come back.

          The Mutual Option would be MUCH better for the team.

          • I agree with your understanding, Fishjam.

          • Fish from what I’ve come to understand about mutual options is they mean nothing as one side will always decline.

            What is the difference between a player option and a team option if there is a buyout attached? To me the side that owns the buyout has the last say.

            When the time comes I believe the Yankees will buy him out because it makes financial sense to do so. This does not mean that Jeter can’t come back on a new contract just that the old one will be done.

            • Its def a weird clause to put in.

              but if the Yanks have the last say I think they’d call it a team option. Not sure but to me it seems like the yanks have no say. Jeter can walk and take $3M or stay and take $8M. Maybe they set it up like that for luxury tax reasons.

              We’ll find out for sure as we get closer to 2013/2014.

              • Just my opinion. But I honestly feel the only reason the $3MM buyout was included in the contract was because of Jeter’s ego. No way he wanted to be paid less on an AAV then the enigma (AKA: AJ Burnett). So if Jeter does not exercise the option he gets $3MM to make his 3 year contract AAV $17MM. That’s just my opinion.

              • Fish…Why then does Cot’s have it at 3 years with 51 million guaranteed? Honestly I think people are getting hung on the player option aspect. In a contract either side can have the option an either side can have the buyout. Usually in Baseball it’s team that has the option on the player but that does not mean it can’t be the other way.

                My point is that there is no way the Yankees allow Jeter to play in 2014 on this contract. If the team still wants him and Jeter wants to play it will be on a new deal. If the option is exercised and accepted then the AAV of his contract would be 14 million in 2014 which is not something the team wants.

                • I think they show $51M guaranteed bc he’s getting that $3M in 2014 whether he excercises the option or not. The team has no choice on the 3M since….it basically comes down to Jeter’s choice to come back for 5M or take a hike.

                  Maybe they did it just so it appeared in the press that it was a $17M per yr AAV when really its a 4yr – $56M and only a (14M AAV). They also deferred $2M per yr without interest in this deal to be paid in 2015-17. So a lot was done with this contract to make it look like it was 17M per yr when it may be much less if the option is exercised.

                  And I’m not positive but if the Yanks take the 17M per yr hit in terms of luxury tax for 1st 3 yrs wouldn’t the final option yr only be a $5M hit? I don’t think they’d pay luxury tax for 17-17-17-14 (65M) when they only actually paid him 56M.

                  I surely don’t know but in any event best case is Jete retires after 2013.

                  • Fish…I believe Cot’s rightfully assumes no one will leave 3 million on the table and walk away without it. So there is an inherent assumption that Jeter will exercise his option to guarantee he receives 3 million of his 8 million dollar player option. Now if he announces he’s retiring after 2013 that team will likely give him the money without making him exercise the option. There is no sense in making him looking greedy.

                    For luxury tax purposes it’s the AAV over the length of the contract plus the guaranteed potion of any options included into said AAV. So when the Yankee picked up both Swisher’s and Cano’s options they now owed more back tax because the AAV of those contract rose. This is how it was explained to me by someone who should know.

  5. Your point about him going for money to own a team one day may not be the case. You don’t have to own a team by yourself. Look at today Torre left his post with MLB to make a run at ownership of the Dodgers but it’s with another money person where he will be the backer and Torre will have more of the say.

    To me though I think Jeter is a stat guy and if he is healthy he will def stay for 2014.

    Below should help answer your question about his contract.

    3 years/$51M (2011-13), plus 2014 player option re-signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/6/10

    11:$15M, 12:$16M, 13:$17M, 14:$8M player option ($3M buyout)

    $2M annually deferred without interest, payable each 3/15, 2015-17 (present-day AAV about $16M)

    2014 option may increase to $17M based on awards earned in 2011-13: $4M for AL MVP; $2M for 2nd-6th in MVP vote; $1.5M for Silver Slugger; $0.5M each for Gold Glove, ALCS MVP, WS MVP

    if 2014 option is exercised at less than $17M, Jeter may earn same bonuses in 2014, up to $17M

    • Those moronic Gold Gloves could have cost the Yanks a half million if he got it in 2011. They really need to change the voting process for Gold Gloves. Any system that chose Alex Gordon over Brett Gardner this season is twisted!

    • Matt, unless I’m mistaken I don’t believe Jeter earned any points towards that 2014 option increase in 2011. Unless being named to the All Star Game is part of it (which I don’t believe it is).

  6. Just food for thought. There is both good and bad in Jeter’s option as it pertains to his salary in the option year as it relates to the luxury tax threshold. Let’s assume for the sake of this post that Jeter does NOT earn any incentives and his 2014 player option is solely worth $8MM. If he exercises it since MLB calculates the luxury tax on an AAV Jeter’s payroll on average to calculate the number going towards the Yankees payroll is $13.5MM per over 4 years. Not the $17MM it would be if he did NOT exercise the option. That’s the good part. The bad part is the Yankees would have a 39 year old at SS to start the 4th year of his contract and he will turn 40 in June of that year. And who even at just $8MM will be grossly overpaid. That can’t be a good thing.

    • If Jeter comes back and the Yankee CAN’T buy him out it will SUCK for the Yankees chances of getting under 189 in 2014. If he comes back his contract changes from a 3 year 17 million dollar deal to a 4 year 56 million dollar deal. So again the buyout is the key and nowhere have I read explains the buyout. There is a lot of speculation on this but I believe the team can and the only reason he got a player option is so he could save face. He wanted a 5 year deal and got a potential 4 year but in reality a 3 year deal.

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