Morning Bits: Posada, Low risk options, Bernie Williams

It’s Tuesday of a long week- away we go with the links….

* The Yankees will survive Posada’s departure.

* Is Posada worthy of the hall of fame?

* Articles like this make me cringe. Low-Risk options remain for the Yankees.

* Discouraging start for Bernie Williams Hall of Fame prospect.

About Matthew S.

Avid Yankee fan since birth. I have been going to Yankee games with my father since i was young. I have many memories at YSII including many playoffs and world series games. I hope that you enjoy our blog. Comment often.

Posted on January 10, 2012, in Notes & Links and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 32 Comments.

  1. About the piece “Low-Risk Options”. I couldn’t disagree more. With their statement and I quote “… there a way for the Yankees to improve their starting pitching depth without breaking the bank”

    The Yankees in 2012 do NOT need to improve their pitching their pitching depth by signing a guy(s) that offer nothing but a hope and a prayer that they might catch lightening in a bottle once again.

    The Yankees already have pitching depth in house that if necessary they can call upon to give them a dozen starts in 2012 if needed. What they could use in my opinion is an “elite” #2 or a solid #3 for 1 year until the 2013 FA class becomes available. Obviously an elite #2 is not currently available. So a solid #3 like Kuroda is warranted to stabilize the middle of their rotation for 1 year.

    • If we don’t get Kuroda or Oswalt will you be upset? I won’t be…let’s roll the dice with what we have and if someone falters we have some capable guys in the minors who should be able to step in.

      • I won’t be upset, but I would be disappointed. Not from the standpoint that I don’t think the Yankees have some real potential waiting in the wings or that they wouldn’t be able to make the postseason without them. But what would disappointment is that the Yankees have the cash and on a 1 year deal it would be very nice to have that added bit of insurance in the middle of the rotation w/experience.

        • fair enough. My friends and I were talking about A-Rod last night and we all feel he could have a big year this year. I think he knows his body now (post roids) and will know his limits and will have a more relaxed approach at the plate.

          • I’m looking for A-Rod to have a very good year. Or at least what I would consider a very good year. I’m figuring on a BA of between .285/.295, 30 to 35 HR’s, and about 105 or so RBI’s. Oh and btw, play 120 to 130 games in the field and DH in 20 to 25 games. That should give him about 525/550 PA’s. That would be fantastic.

            Also, not that you asked but I’m looking for Tex to rebound as well and pick up his BA to between .275/.285 which should give him a lot more RBI’s in 2012.

            • Tex rebounding and A-Rod having a good season would be stellar. I just have this feeling that this season the offense is going to explode.

              • I agree. I think Martin will have a better offense year. With a little more rest. And I think Swisher who btw I not a great fan of will get off to a better start in 2012.

                …and like I said yesterday in a comment I expect the Yankees to will the division. They could have easily won 100 games last season if they didn’t rest several of the players the last 2 weeks of the season and if the hadn’t gone 6-12 versus the Red Sox which I have no doubt won’t happen this year.

              • Sorry for the typo ” I expect the Yankees to WIN the division” not will. Sorry about that.

              • After chatting with Ballpark trading Tex should be looked into. First would Tex wave his no trade? If he did would trading him to the Nationals make sense for both teams? The Yankees would have to kick in 10/12 million plus take back Andy LaRoche. I think if Tex would go to Washington he would solidify first base defensively and be the missing piece to their lineup. He would only end up costing the Nationals around 90 million for 5 years instead of going after Fielder for 8/10 years at much more money.

                The Yankees get salary relief from this plus the ability to move Montero to first base an Alex to DH going forward. The Yankees would be much better positioned to be under the SALARY CAP as well. Doing this could allow for the Yankees to bring back Chavez and play him plus Laird and Nunez at third. With the freed up money the team could use it to target more starting pitching. If not they could start to fully transform into a more contending team in 2014. Get rid of Swisher and sign Cespedes. Move Gardner to CF and trade Granderson at the deadline. If Hughes, Freddie or Burnett are pitching well at the deadline trade them too. Bring up and pitch Mitchell, Noesi, and Phelps early and Banuelos and Betances later.

                I think this organization need BIG change to be super competitive going forward.

                • I don’t think Tex would waive it to go from the yankees to the Nationals.

                  • Matt…I didn’t think so either at first but the Nationals have a very good chance to make the post season next year especially if they add the extra wild card team and going forward I really like their chances over the next 5 years. Tex would not be going to a bad situation and would be a lot closer to home. Over the next 5 years one might be lead to believe that the Nationals have a better chance to win then the Yankees.

                    • I see your point since he is a B’more native. and you are right they are set for the next 5 years.

                      I still don’t see it though. Crazier things have happened though. So i guess ya never know.

                      Would you please tell Ballpark I said hello next time you speak to him.

  2. Matt, I’m still not convinced the Yankees should make an decent offer for Cespedes when he becomes a FA by all accounts in the next 2 weeks. Say 5 or 6 years at $7.5MM per who knows it might be enough. And if they signed him they would be free to seek a trade for Swisher. Who knows where that would lead. If they don’t get him no harm no foul.

    Also if they could manage to sign Cepedes for $7.5MM per that would fit within my model of where the Yankees need to be payroll wise for that position to start to get at or below the 2014 luxury tax threshold of $189MM.

  3. OOps sorry again for the typo. SHOULDN’T make a decent…. Is what I meant to type at the beginning.

    • I would rather them sign Soler.

      • Amen to that Matt, much younger and some say a better hitter and faster etc.

        Also, most experts (so called) say A-Rods range and defense was very good last year, even with his health problems. Putting him at DH would be a big mistake. He has been a super star (?) since he was in high school…about 20+ years. Trying to change him to DH would be another learning experience at his age and with his ego. We would loose half a year of his production, while he tries to adapt to being a DH.
        Bye the way a lot of people think ego is a bad word but, without it, one can’t make himself into a star player. The harm of ego is; letting it get into the way of reality… which happens to most of the Stars…see, Posada and Jeter!

      • Why not both? Cespedes could be immediately useful as a replacement for Swisher which I mentioned previously. Then come the 2014 season when Granderson either becomes to expensive for the Yankees if they want to get to the $189MM luxury tax threshold he would fit right in. They could rework the outfield then with who plays where. As for Soler that’s 2 or 3 years down the road.

        Stash Solar in the minors for a couple of years of seasoning and maturing then he and Mason Williams would potentially be available around the same time. Best case the Yankees have 2 studs in the minors available to help them in the outfield. Worse case one of them has issues and the Yankees can trade him.

        I don’t know but it sounds like a win, win.

        • Sorry i meant if i had to pick between the two. If they can get both HELL YES get both. For the scenario you just mentioned.

        • uyf1950…I had been of the same opinion but, I would try and go whole hog and spend what ever it takes to get them and Armando Rivero 23 year old RH pitcher and Gerardo Concepcion a 19 year old LH pitcher!
          Rivero 98+/- FB, slider, split, sinker and change, how good the pitches are is open for debate.
          Gerardo Concepcion, pitched this past year and was 10-3, 3.36 ERA.
          I mean, if they will never get a chance to draft very high, why not use their money now while they still can. All four of them are rated highly but, I don’t know about pitchers from Cuba…their track record isn’t to good.
          Most of the Cuban pitchers have been much older, these are just kids and can adapt to our way of pitching etc.
          What say you?

          • It looks like the Yankees are pretty well set in the pitching department in the minors for the next few years. I think if I were them I try and concentrate on getting some position players in their system.

            Having said that I’m all for the Yankees using their advantage (money) every chance they can. And it looks like directionally MLB is doing everything they can to stop the Yankees from doing that. The Yankees only have until I believe this coming July (maybe it’s June) to use their financial might to sign international players without the slotting repercussions in the CBA. I say they should do whatever it takes, signing any and all prospects is a gamble anyway.

  4. Matt, interesting piece on RAB I just saw. Here is the link

    Obviously the tile in the link gives you a pretty good idea of the topic.

    • UFY, Dan, Ken and everyone…..

      This reminds me….I have a piece I’m working on about how the Yanks will move forward with the new rules in CBA. I’ll be interviewing a prominent authority on payroll and business matters in MLB and how these will influence the Yankees. I have most of my questions put together but if you guys have anything specific that you’d like to ask, let me know and I’ll try to include it.

      • Fish…I have a lot of questions but can only think of 3 right now.

        I want clarification on Jeter’s 2014 option….meaning can the Yankees buy him out an if they can, that means his contract is fully over in 2013. No money is extended into 2014?

        Can the Yankees buyout Alex Rodriguez? If they did would the tax hit all come in one year?

        Starting in the 11th round of the draft can the Yankees sign as many kids as they want to $99,999 bonus plus if the kids don’t make it full ride college tuition as they like?

        • Fish here is another one…with all the incentives for teams to stay under189 going forward will the union come to see this as a hard cap? If the union does could this mean the end of the luxury tax going forward? In the next round of the CBA negotiations could we see the end of the luxury tax for the union and the teams get contract length limits to 4 years like the NBA now has?

          • I was going to ask him where exactly was the MLBPA when this CBA was agreed to and if this agreement is a signal that the power has shifted from MLBPA to Ownership.

            EVERYTHING is Owner-friendly in my mind. Amateurs get killed and Owners will save huge amounts in the Draft and Int’l FA Market. And the players lose out with the Luxury tax going up only a measley $10M over the 5 year deal. It’s been going up roughly $8M per yr since it was implemented but now it’s not even rising at the cost of living/inflation rate. In the last 5 yrs the luxury tax threshold rose from $42 Million!!! but under this agreement it doesn’t rise at all until 2014 and only goes up $10M in the next 5 yrs.

            The penalties on 3-time repeaters like the Yanks jump from 40 to 50% and they give teams a $10M incentive every yr NOT to cross the threshold.

            I’ll ask him about adopting a contract-length max.

            • Fish the big fight in the next CBA has to be luxury tax for the union and maximum contract length for the owners. A secondary issue for me would be if contract length is limited to 4 years would MLB eliminate no trade clauses June 1st in year 3 of a 4 year deal? Making all players available for trading?

        • Definitely going to ask him about Jeter’s situation and how his AAV is calculated if he retires or if he comes back in 2014.

          Regarding ARod, I’m going to ask him about the Marketing Agreements in his contract and if they apply to the Tax. I know Incentives count but these aren’t technically incentives because incentives can’t be tied to performance stats, only awards (All-Star, MVP, etc) or playing time (# of starts, IP, etc.).

          Do you mean could the Yankees offer ARod $30 Million after 2014 to rip up the final 3 yrs – $61M? And if so whats the Tax hit?

          It’s my understanding that unlimited picks from the 11th rd on can be signed for up to $100,000 with same crazy restrictive penalties if they go over the 100G.

          • Fish,

            On Jeter I want to know if the player option can be bought out. If it can does that mean he will have no salary for 2014? Meaning the buyout does not count at all in 2014.

            Good questions on Alex. For me I want to know how the tax hit would be applied if the Yankees buy him out. Meaning 2013 becomes the end of his Yankees career…how would the league tax the Yankees. Also if the Yankees released Alex would they have to pay the marketing agreements if he played for another team?

            Fish on the draft my understanding is the same as yours but I was hoping for clarification. Could the Yankees if they wanted sign 40 kids this way?

      • I have one but, it is a bit dumb;
        Ask; “How are the other teams going to make it without the money from the Yankees”?

        As it is now, some of the small market teams get money from the tax on the Yankees and put it in their bank account, than cry that they are a small market and can’t compete with the other teams…poor babys!
        Off hand, that’s it! If I think of something more positive I’ll let you know, it should be interesting. A must read for us guys…thanks for thinking of it, good luck!

        • Howdy Ken –

          I just learned this recently myself but other teams actually don’t get money from the Luxury tax. A portion of the Luxury Tax goes to the Commissioner’s Office and the vast majority goes to the Players in the form of “player Benefits”….whatever exactly that is. I guess this is why the MLBPA allows the league to put this soft cap in place on the Yankees since the money is going to the players somehow anyway.

          All the yankee cash that goes to other teams is part of the revenue sharing program. A % of local revenue from the yanks and other high-revenue teams goes to low-revenue teams. Yanks dish out over $100M per year in Revenue Sharing that goes firectly to teams like the Marlins and Royals who pocketed the money for years.

          Ironically, now the Marlins are probably using the money they’ve pocketed from the Yanks for years to go on a ridiculous spending spree.

          But that’s a good question, I will ask why teams are allowed to pocket revenue sharing money with no accounting of how it is paid.

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