Will Curtis Granderson Regress?

A hot end to Curtis Granderson’s 2010 season gave Yankee fans a lot to look forward to for his 2011 season. However, even the most optimistic Yankee fan could not have predicted how good Granderson would be in 2011. Granderson, who finished 4th in the A.L. MVP voting, finished 2011 batting .262, hitting 42 homers, knocking in 119 RBI, scoring 136 runs, and fishing with an .916 OPS. It was a testament to Kevin Long and Granderson’s work ethic that he could change so drastically after a miserable 2010 season. After having a career year last year a little regression probably should be expected for Granderson in 2012. How big of a regression and how it will affect the Yankees are the real questions.

I think Granderson will have a slight regression, but it’s probably one of the last things the Yankees need to worry about this year. I think that we will see improved years from Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Also, having Jesus Montero be the full time DH will be a major upgrade over the multitude of players the Yankees had at DH last year.  This all would help even out a potential Granderson slippage. Granderson certainly will not regress back into his 2010 numbers. Ever since Long has revamped Granderson’s swing he has been a different player. Long cut out all of Granderson’s pre swing movements to take advantage of Granderson’s quick hands. This lead to a quicker and more compact swing. Also, Long had had Granderson keep both hands on the bat throughout the whole swing, which has also helped him. While Granderson’s power numbers are likely to come down he can offset that by being a more selective hitter.

Granderson’s only issue last year was that he stuck out a little too much. Granderson stuck out 169 times last year, and had a 24.5 K rate.  Granderson got a little impatient because pitchers stopped throwing him a lot of fastballs. Word got around quick that Granderson was crushing fastballs, and pitchers only threw him fastballs 51.1% of the time in 2011. A more patient approach would force pitchers to throw him more fastballs and Granderson could increase his career high walk rate of 12.3% last year.  Granderson swung at pitches outside the strike zone at a 25.7% clip and made contact with pitches outside the strike zone at a 60.8% clip. Both of those numbers were career high’s for Granderson. The fact that he is making better contact with pitches shows how he is improving as a hitter. However, it also leads to a lower BABIP (.295 last year for Granderson) and a lower regular batting average.  This shows that while Granderson had an MVP caliber year improving his plate discipline can help him even further.

Bill James predicts Granderson to go .348/.494/.842, with a .260 average, 31 homeruns, and 84 RBI. If he did that the Yankees would be fine, but I do expect him to do slightly better then that anyway. The Yankees are loaded offensively from the top of their lineup to the bottom. If Teixeira and Rodriguez hit to their potential, Montero hits anywhere close to what he did in Spetember, and Robinson Cano does his thing the Yankees can take a slight regression from Granderson.  Granderson is also one of the most well spoken guys and one of the best clubhouse guys on the Yankees, so he contributes in more ways than just on the field. Curtis Granderson is not in the least bit a concern for the Yankees this year and should have another stellar year.

About Matthew B

I am a student at William Paterson University and studying to become a sportswriter. I have a huge passion for the Yankees and love sharing my opinions on them. I can analyze every aspect of the Yankees very well. I am very active on Twitter so feel free to contact me there Twitter: @RAYROBERT9

Posted on January 12, 2012, in Personal Opinion, Player Analysis, Statistical Analysis and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 19 Comments.

  1. Matthew great article this part made me read it over and over “Bill James predicts Granderson to go .348/.494/.842” If he is even close to that average I would be very happy.

  2. 2 guys had HUGE career years that really bailed the Yankees out – Curtis Granderson & David Robertson.

    If those 2 guys had normal seasons last year, no way the yanks would have won. CC is irreplaceable, Cano is their best hitter & Mo is consistently elite but Granderson & Robertson were the team MVPs IMO.

  3. Yeah Matt like I said in the article if Granderson gives us the year Bill projects that would be fine.

  4. Of course he’s going to regress… the man scored 136 times last year, hit 41 home runs, knocked in 119, and stole 25 bases. Those stats are incredible, and there’s a reason why he was a strong MVP candidate. His .262 average should stay around that area, as he is a .267 career hitter, but the rest will likely regress slightly. However, as fans we shouldn’t be concerned, who’s going to be disappointed by a regression that results in something like 35 HR’s, 105 RBI, 120 runs, and 25 SB’s? Probably nobody.

    • totally agree with your statements Mark. welcome to the blog. What do you think of Oswalt and Kuroda? Which would you prefer? Or would getting Jackson at a one year higher deal make more sense to you?

  5. Great article Matthew! I think Granderson will regress slightly, but not a lot. I just wouldn’t expect Granderson to hit 41 HR’s in 2012. 30-35 HR’s most likely.

  6. Well with out staff, any of the three would be great. I’ve always liked Kuroda as a formidable, underrated guy, and we have to remember, he’d be getting lots of run support here so 6 innings of 3 run ball is more than enough to help us. As for Oswalt, he’s always been great but is such an injury liability now, but is clearly the most talented of the three. And I like Jackson as well, he and Kuroda are very similar in their ability to give us some quality innings, but Jackson is young and could possibly be on the back end of our rotation beyond 2012 if he were to perform well. I like them all to be honest, because we need any help we can get in our rotation to help out C.C.

  7. A person familiar with the Yankees’ thinking told Marc Craig of the Star-Ledger that “January brings shifts”….interesting term? Shifts in the teams budget, is the point. Look for some kind of signing….soon. Sorry if I repeated myself last night. Many of us repeat our points of view, at times. Was not intentional,………Forward.

  8. oh and another thing, how do i change my picture?

    • Mark just click the image next to your name click view profile and you should be able to figure it out from their.

      speaking of i need to change my image that Montero is now gone. Ugh was so looking forward to him. But pitching was needed.

      • Matt, I love this deal for the Yankees. Actually it’s a good deal for both teams. It certainly means the Yankees will have payroll room at the end of 2012 to go after Hamels or Cain if they are still available.

        Imaige a starting rotation in 2013 of : CC, Hamels or Cain, Pineda, Nova and Banuelos or Noesi.

  9. Just read it, Michael Pineda is coming to the Yanks for Jesus Montero, so there is the big name pitcher we’ve been waiting for. Now we just have to hope Pineda will progress enough to give us something closer to the beginning of last season, than the end of last season. Because we shipped out Jesus for it, and it was obvious he was going to be special.

Leave a Comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: