O/U: Pineda and Nova

Image Detail

Player: Michael Pineda

Stat: Strikeouts

O/U: 190

Report: Pineda has been a highly polarizing player for the Yankees this spring. A lot of Yankee fans seem to be down on this kid and are already calling this trade a bust.  People really need to take a step off the ledge. We really cannot judge this trade for about 5 years since this trade was not just about this year. He is only 22, is still developing, and its only spring training. Can we at least wait until the year starts before we get serious about evaluating players? For example Roy Halladay’s velocity has been down for Philadelphia and people are not freaking out. I am not comparing the two pitchers at all please do not accuse me of that. My point is some pitchers take time to build up arm strength.  Do I like that he came in overweight? No, but unfortunately he is not the first guy(ex: CC and Hughes). I watched him for extensively for the first time last night and I saw things he can build on. I am not really concerned about the velocity. He hit 93 pretty regularly and touched 94 at times, which is what you would expect in the beginning of the game in the regular season let alone spring training. I could also tell he was holding back a little in my eyes anyway. The 1st inning his location was hideous and it got him into big trouble. However, the next two innings he located his fastball, got ahead of hitters, and mixed up his pitches well enough to strike out 5 out of 6 batters. It was really a great sign that he made adjustments so quickly. That is impressive for such a young pitcher.  He seems to be really improving his changeup and trusting it more. His slider is a true put away pitch.  Anyway Pineda struck out 173 batters in 171 innings last season. So projecting an added total of 20 innings I think 190 is a good number for his O/U for strikeouts.

The Verdict: I think with Pineda’s secondary pitches continuing to improve and giving hitters something else to worry about that he gets to 190 strikeouts.

The Player: Ivan Nova

Stat: ERA

O/U: 3.95

The Report: I am not as optimistic about Nova as I am Pineda. I still believe Nova will turn out to be a solid long term starter for the Yankees. I still loved the mental toughness he displayed last season and the potential for his stuff to improve. However, I can see a little step back this year. It has nothing to do with how he has looked this spring, but because he outperformed his peripheral numbers last year by a good deal. Nova’s FIP was 4.10 compared to his 3.70 ERA.  What is really troubling was his 5.51 K/9 compared to his 3.10 BB/9. That must improve if he is going to sustain his success from last year. What helped him out last year was his .283 BABIP against him and his 52.7 GB %. He will really need the development of his slider to continue this year.

The Verdict: I will say over with his ERA being around the 4.05 to 4.10 area.

So what do you guys think? O/U 190 K’s for Pineda? O/U 3.95 ERA for Nova? Give me your thoughts.

About Matthew B

I am a student at William Paterson University and studying to become a sportswriter. I have a huge passion for the Yankees and love sharing my opinions on them. I can analyze every aspect of the Yankees very well. I am very active on Twitter so feel free to contact me there Twitter: @RAYROBERT9

Posted on March 21, 2012, in Personal Opinion, Player Analysis and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 64 Comments.

  1. There is a positive reason why the Yanks did not trade Nova. He has the stuff and will win for our Yanks with an era more like 3.75. GoodThoughs, Frank

  2. Over on Nova: 4.05 ERA and under on Pineda 180 K’s.

  3. I am a pro Pineda Yankee fan. Look at his ST work. He is developing a Change Up and defining his other pitches. His FastBall is coming around. He seems smart enough to not burn his arm out and let it come.. he recently reached 94 and we can expect more. The key here is that like Girardi said: he is getting OUTS. GoodThoughts, Frank B.

  4. Over on both, but slightly. Pineda with 195 K’s, Nova with an even 4.00 ERA.

  5. frank b and uyf, these 2 guys are the future for the Yanks along with Hughes and the 2 killer Bs. I would expect them too do well this year. The Yanks have a nice blend on this team of young players and veterans. Cashman has done his best work the last few years.

    • Doug, I think Betances is going to be used as trade bait at some point. I would not be surprised that since Banuelos has looked very good this spring and only in the last week or so turned 21 and some of the other young arms have looked so good (Phelps, etc) that Betances becomes part of a package to get a cost controlled bat for the Yankees.

      • Trade deadline Nova is pitching decent would you trade him plus Betances and or any other pitcher in AAA for a OF position player who will be a Free-agent (Michael Bourn, BJ Upton)?

        That player could DH and you can hope to resign in the off-season. Thoughts?

        • Matt, no way, Nova and Betances are your future. The Yanks and Cashman are setting themselves up well for the future and 2014. They have some good young pitchers who are going to keep them at the top of the division for years to come. Bourn and Upton don’t do anything for me. They are ? in NY.

        • If I were Cashman and believe me fans should be thankful I’m not. But, I wouldn’t trade Nova for either of those 2 primarily because both are going to be FA’s at the end of the 2012 season.

          Like I’ve mentioned a couple of times here. If all the young guys are pitching up to expectations this season I keep all of them (Nova, Pineda and Hughes). I’d try and trade Garcia for Abreau sometime this spring or early summer. If I can get that done.

          Then depending on what happens at the end of the 2012 season/FA/winter meetings I see what’s available and try and package Betances another arm (not Phelps) and maybe a prospect for a cost control OF’er/bat for the 2013 season and beyond. For example may be see what the Reds might want for Corey Hart (just as an example).

          Hart could replace Swisher for the 2013 season then in 2014 they Yankees could rework their outfield. Have Gardner play CF, Hart play RF and platoon a couple of the young guys that have looked very good so far this spring or see in Almonte or Williams are ready by 2014. Obviously I assuming Granderson is gone for 2 reasons one his age and 2 his cost/years required to resign him considering his age.

          • uyf1950, how’s it going?
            As I said below, why trade three pitchers with good upside for a FA bat. Betances is a work in progress true but has good up side. Who would you throw in with him….Mitchell, Warren or Turley? Those are who they would ask for!
            I wouldn’t make that trade at all but, as you said, “thank the baseball gods, I am not Cashman”…more or less.
            Keep the faith… 🙂

            • I’m doing well and yourself? I don’t think I said 3 pitchers (2 pitchers and a prospect). Perhaps I sould have been a little clearer about the prospect. But that was in reference to a player of Corey Hart’s caliber. As the saying goes you have to give up something to get something.

              Someone much smarter then me told me a long time ago use them or lose them. And letting prospects waste away in the minors when they can be used to better the team in a different way just goes against my way of thinking.

              Hey, but that’s why they pay Cashman the big bucks.

              • uyf1950…
                My bad!
                I think the way things are being set-up by the pitchers themselves, makes it much easier to bring them up one at a time. example only…2013–CC, Pineda, Nova and Phil then we add Banuelos and Phelps to the BP (for experience). 2014–CC, Pineda, Nova, ManBam and ?
                One can’t forget some will or may not, end up as trade bait or in the BP.
                So, as too losing them, I don’t know about that, some don’t pan out and we have to replace them.
                Just my story and I’ll stand by it…for now anyhow! lol

                • My friend.

                  I’m a Hughes fan. If he pitches well I keep him in 2013 and beyond. He’s not going to be that expensive. And Id rather have a guy with 6 years experience then 2 guys with 2 years or less. But hey that’s just me.

                  • Buddy, be not upset at what or how I wrote that reply…it was an—-Example Only! I like Phil and always have, I can worry about a guy I like without saying he needs to be replaced…winning is the only thing that I think of.
                    Phil is a good pitcher and unless my prognosis comes true, he will be with the Yanks until he is to expensive or they can get something very good for him.
                    Come on uyf1950, you and I think a lot alike but don’t tell anyone. lol

                    • My friend. I wasn’t upset in the least. What gave you that idea? I appreciate and value your comments. Please don’t read something into my comments that isn’t there, my friend. All’s well. Take care

      • uyf, pitching is impossible to predict, you have pitchers likd Lowe, AJ, Dice-K and Lackey who have had good years in the majors and become a bust. How about Randy Johnson. To bet on Baneulos and Phelps over Betances looks to make sense but could come back to bite the Yanks in the ass. Cashman will try and stay one step ahead of the game. Right now he is judging whether the Yanks are stronger in pitching or the outfield. Good trades are those that work out for both teams. The Yanks really didn’t know what they had when they got Cano and Swisher. They were a bonus. Most times when you think you get the best deal it doesn’t work out. I’d keep the pitchers, and fast track Almonte and Williams. Even if they aren’t as good as Swisher next year, they may be better than him in the long run. My philosiphy is pitching wins.

        • Doug, I don’t disagree with about pitching in general. But as for Betances, he’ll be 24 in just a couple of days and he hasn’t even sniffed the ML’s to speak of other then a couple up games in September. Also, from most everything I’ve read from supposedly people that know. Is that the most they project Betances as is for the bullpen, possible a set up candidate. I just think the Yankees have “other” prospects that have shown themselves to may be a better chance with the Yankees. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I just think sometime in 2012 or the end of 2012 is the time to move on Betances.

          And holding on to Betances to para-phase your comment above “could come back to bit the Yankees on the ass”. This may not be an apples to apples comparison but the Yankees held on to Brackman and look at how that worked out for them. Just saying….

          • uyf, I agree for the most part, I don’t think Betances is that great either, but then what are you going to get for him. He is better than Brackman, whoopie. His value is going down because of his age and his window is closing. He did look better this year than last as Phelps did in spring training. It is hard to evaluate players by watching them in the spring. I don’t think you are getting an oultfielder better than Williams for Betances.

            • Doug, I agree completely about a straight up trade for Betances. There would definitely have to be more in the package to get something “worthwhile” if you’ll allow me to use that term.

        • Doug…
          Randy Johnson, he of the 300 + wins, was a bust? In NY only.
          Cano was drafted by the Yankees and those of us that saw him play in the minors knew what the Yankees had, just needed motivation, which he received from A-Rod.
          Cashman will do his thing and I agree with fast tracking a couple of the best OF prospects.
          The idea that pitching wins has a big flaw…with out good hitting to score runs, you can’t win.
          The name of the game is win, Good pitching keeps one in the game, good defence helps the pitcher do his job and good hitting scores runs to win the game.
          Number 1-2 pitchers are hard to come by, harder than a good bat and more valuable. Good pitchers can pitch for 12-17 years at a high level. Hitters are good hitters for about 8-12 +/-years, after that they become part time players.
          So, I do agree with you somewhat.
          Good going, keep the faith! 🙂

          • old yankee, I think Randy is one of the best of all time, best K/9 10.61 of all pitchers. He was near the end of his career at the time. Nobody new that Cano was going to be this good. The Yanks have scored in the top 3 the last five years in runs, hitting is a big strength for the Yanks. Experts always put the Yanks line up in the top five, not their pitching. The 2 teams picked to win the series this year are the Phillies and Angels mainly because they have the top pitching. The Rays are the best example, their pitching has kept them competitive in the East for the last few years. Their position players aren’t even close to the Sox and Yanks.

            • Doug…
              I have no problem with your point of view at all, in fact i like it. I agree good pitching is a must, to get through the play-offs and WS but good timely hitting is a good thing to have also…don’t you think?
              Anyhow, you brought up the age of Betances as 24 and getting old to be a propect, right? Well Randy, even though in the majors was a nothing pitcher until he was 26 or so, the same with Koufax, he was in the majors for 6 years until he got things turned around. Both of them turned out ok…!
              Cano had one of the sweetest swings I had ever seen in the minors. He was a free swinger with everything just right. Good foundation with powerful legs, cleared his hips well fast/power hands and a very fast level swing….very smooth and easy looking.
              You may have forgotten the Angels also inproved their hitting game with the addition of
              Pujols.

              • But how do you acquire “timely hitting”?

                I understand what you mean, though, which is why I want to see the team replace Swisher with somebody that can bat .290 or higher. You may not be able to predict when he hits, but the fact he hits that often should work out.

                • you don’t. A-Rod didn’t have it for awhile in the playoffs. Then he found it. Same goes for Swisher. He hasn’t found it yet but if he gets hot in the playoffs this year (assuming the Yankees get in his FA price will go up). exp. Carlos Beltran.

                  • I never liked going by postseason numbers, as the sample sizes are way too small. Just get good hitters.

                    • agreed by it does get FA’s bigger contracts in contract years.

                      I’d rather have a good (season) hitters any day. You have to make it to the playoffs first. That’s the important part.

                    • I don’t think the Yankees make any sort of “big splash” in free agency til 2016. With Cano and Granderson’s upcoming free agency, and an already tight budget, I don’t think it’ll happen.

                  • Matt, check out the world series stats of the 90’s, they were very random with little in the way of clutch hitters. The good pitching won most of those series. Hitters like Brosius, Fielder, and Leyritz were some of the clutch hitters, very random. Short series tend to be very random. Last year it was Fresse and Berkman as the clutch hitters. Berkman looked washed up the year before with the Yanks. Two years ago it was Renteria, was the clutch hitter. I really don’t believe in clutch hitting, it’s random.

                • GP…
                  A very good question, I think it is a combination of many things, the most understandable one is…one gets hot per, Bobby Richardson, or focused. Another is, he who can tune everything out except situational hitting…there are times (most times) when a single is all that is needed…so hit a single. Don’t guess and don’t think in the batters box, do your thinking before you get in the box.
                  There are so many fans that want a LH power hitter, me…I ain’t got no larnings but I no a—- .300 gap hitter is needed more! Power we have but we need more timely hitting…get um on, move um over and bring um home…it is really a simple kids game, played by some of the best athletes in the world.
                  The best option is, one can get lucky just like I did in poker, last night! lol 🙂

                  • Congrats on poker. LOL

                    Sounds like we’d both like to see the Yankees get the same type of player.

                  • old yankee, I agree with getting hot at the right time, but I think most major leaguers are focused and can tune everything out. Look at some of the clutch hitters the last few years. Fresse,Berkman, Renteria, and Ross, very random. I have watched many players and see no difference in their focus. Maybe it is the pitcher who makes the hitter clutch or not clutch. The Yanks hit .183 agains’t Johnson and Schilling in the 2003 series, there were no clutch hitters. The Rangers were down to their last pitch last year and Fresse became a clutch hitter.

                    • Doug…
                      I agree with you on the pitchers making a clutch hitter out of a player.
                      One thing a hitter can count on is a pitcher throwing a pitch that doesn’t break at sometime in the game…or mistake pitch!
                      It is hard for a pitcher to put the ball exactly where he wants it on every pitch! 🙂

    • Matthew B. I agree with you and respond to post by some of our friends in this string that we Yankee fans have to get over the idea that the only way we can have good pitching is to pay for it. Every other team develops pitchers from their system. We are finally doing that. We have great minor leaguers with allot of potential. They will go thur their ups and downs but will contribute to more Yankee post seasons and a few more World Championships. GoodThoughts, Frank B.

      • welcome aboard Frank B. looking forward to more of your comments and insight.

        • Matt S. thank you for the greeting. SideBar… how do I add a picture to my posts? GoodThoughts, Frank B.

          • Frank if you “hover” your cursor over your image next to your name it should say view complete profile click that. let me know if that works. that will take you to place where you can upload or take an image from the web for your “avatar”

            • also after you get it set up you need to type another comment for it to go through i believe.

            • Matt S. “hovering” is not working. Maybe because I do not have a profile? GoodThoughts, Frank b.

              • hmmmm sorry I gave you bad info then. maybe if you try registering for our email updates. maybe that will get you registered for wordpress and allow you to update a picture. That is located on the right hand side of the page above the Blog Stats.

                sorry.

      • Fank B, the way I look at getting talent is- 1 through the draft, the Yanks are at a disadvantage here because most of the superstar players come in the first 15 picks in the first round. The Yanks never draft in the first 15 picks. 2- through free agency, players are more exspensive here and more risky. 3- through trades which has been the Yanks best avenue the last few years. They picked up Grandy and Pineda. The Yanks have picked up other teams first rounders through free agency and trades to make them a strong. I don’t see them signing another big free agent until 2016, so they will have to depend on the draft and trades to bolster the team.

        • Matthew B. in agreement with you. The fun here is that the Yanks do make interesting trades. It is fun to speculate but then– wham here could come a King Filex or a deal for a first rounder. One thing we know is that we contend. We always did and looks like the Steinbrenner family is into keeping it that way for a while. I’m signing off early tonight, business calls and tomorrow is a travel day for me. I’ll be back and will learn to get a pix of me up by my name! Hold the Fort. GoodThoughts, Frank B.

  6. I will go under with Pineda and over on Nova

  7. Matt…
    Why would we have to trade three players for an OF with a good bat and being a DH? I don’t understand the reasoning for such a deal. Trade a starting pitcher for a OF is the most I would do, maybe a pitcher of little need could be included.
    I also don’t understand the hits Nova has been taking from some around here because he have a lower SO/9 than some think he should have. Others say his numbers last year were higher than they were before and there for he will not have those numbers this year…
    News Flash; he started using (over using) his slider more and effectively.I don’t know of many that have said Nova is a #1 or 2 pitcher but, he is a solid starter.
    This is spring training people!
    How is it going Matt? 🙂

    • It was just food for thought to get a something going. Wasn’t saying I was in favor of it. Just something a friend brought up today figured to see what everyone here thought of it.

      I also didn’t mean 3 players. Meant Nova and Betances or another Triple A pitcher. (so just two).

      Things are good Ken. I hope your health is well.

      • Matt, I’m always good, thanks!
        Ok, I understand. I still wouldn’t trade Nova and Betances both but, that’s me…”Never saw a trade I liked, involving the kids!” 🙂

        • What about the Granderson trade? That turned out pretty good for the Yankees.

          • uyf, that trade turned out pretty good for all the teams, that’s why it was a great trade. All three teams made the playoffs last year with players in that trade making contributions. My question is, what is the Yanks biggest weakness next year?

            • Biggest weakness? I’m not sure they have a “big” weakness. But they could do some things that can make them better. And also they could do something later on in the season as a preemptive measure.

              For example for sometime this season: They could use a good left handed bat/DH. Ibanez doesn’t seem to be the answer at least from what we’ve seen so far. And in my opinion another lefty relief pitcher.

              With an eye towards the 2013 season a replacement for Swisher and another starting pitcher. And I’m crossing my fingers that someone already on the roster will replace Rivera. Getting back to Swisher as I mentioned before possibly a Corey Hart type player that the Yankees can do something with for the 2014 season as well.

              That’s about all I can think of for now.

  8. I started to put together a list of possible trade targets but stopped, as I don’t see the point since things with young players could change before the Yankees even think about replacing Swisher.

    I’d like to see a player under team control through 2015 (to help get under the Luxury Tax threshold), hits for a good batting average (Cano and Jeter were the only Yankee regulars with a BA over .276), and play strong defense.

    • I’d be fine with no big free agents splash. Keep it in house with the farm if they can.

    • GP…
      Welcome to the site your post ;

      “I’d like to see a player under team control through 2015 (to help get under the Luxury Tax threshold), hits for a good batting average (Cano and Jeter were the only Yankee regulars with a BA over .276), and play strong defense.”
      ==============
      That is the type of player one can wish for (and we have in the lower minors) but will not make the jump until 2014/15. Which is something I don’t understand, there have been many many great players come up to the Show at 19 and 20 years old and made it big! Why not have one of our kids come up at 19-20?

  9. For me, I like the team for this year at this point. I think mid season they might get a bat if Ibanez is faultering. I think Rapada or Cabral can be the lefty out of the pen, although I think Joba is going to come back and be strong. Add Phelps to the pen, and maybe Andy and we are set. The biggest needs for next year will be closer, starter, and rightfield. The closer whoever that is won’t do as well as Mo. I do think it is important that Gardner improves in the next couple of years. I would like to see him become a .300 hitter, I think he can do it. He need to hit rightys better. Tex needs to solve the shift problem hitting again’st rightys. I would like to see Grandy improve his average. The steady improvement of the young pitchers Hughes, Nova, Pineda, Phelps, and the B’s

  10. Just reading through it is really hard to find guys like the Yankees had in the 90s who took their game to new heights in the postseason. The postseason is random and you cannot predict how a guy will perform. Just get the best hitters you can and hope for the best.

  11. Matt, I think the 90’s was random for the Yanks. The pitching was so good the hitting was below average. Top hitters in 96 series Feilder and Leyritz. Bernie .167, O’Neil .167, Jeter .250, Tino .091. The pitching won this series. Key, Cone, Mo, Wetland, and Pettite.In 98 the piching of Cone, Pettite, and Hernandez was the key. Top hitters Jeter .353, Knoblauch.375, and Brosius .471 with 2 homers and 6 RBIs. Pretty random so far with Brosius, Fielder, and Leyritz. In 99 once again it was the pitching of Clemens, Cone, Hernandez, Stanton, Nelson, and Mo. Top hitters, Jeter, Knobby, Tino, Brosius, and Curtis. In 2000 the pitching of Clemens and Pettite was good, and the top hitters were Tino, Jeter, and O’Neil. The one constant seemed to be the pitching, not the clutch hitting. The hitters were in position to win many of those games because of the pitching.

  12. Matt, In 2001 the Yanks hit .183 as a team agains’t Randy Johnson and Kurt Schilling, mostly the same hitters. There were no clutch hitters in these games.

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